Anomaly Detection

AI-powered anomaly detection across all revenue channels and MCDAs

Critical

Requires immediate attention

Warning

Under monitoring

Informational

For awareness

Open Cases

Awaiting resolution

Detection Accuracy

86.4%

30-day rolling accuracy

ANM-001criticalOpenAssigned: Peter Kamau

Unusual spike in KPA port charges

Port charges 47% above 30-day moving average. Detected at 14:23 on 2025-06-14. The spike correlates with 3 bulk cargo vessels docking simultaneously at Mombasa port.

MCDA: KPAAmount: KES 8.75MDeviation: +47%Confidence: 89%Transactions: 342

Likely cause: Bulk cargo vessel arrival — MV Maersk Kenya, MV Evergreen Star, and MV CMA CGM docked at Berths 17-19

ANM-002criticalUnder ReviewAssigned: Jane Muthoni

Duplicate transaction cluster — Nairobi parking

156 potential duplicate transactions detected in parking fees. Pattern: same amount (KES 300), same time window (11:00-11:05), same payment channel (M-Pesa).

MCDA: NRBAmount: KES 46.8KDeviation: N/AConfidence: 94%Transactions: 156

Likely cause: System retry loop in M-Pesa integration — possible timeout causing duplicate submissions

ANM-003warningOpen

NTSA collection drop — Driving License

Driving license collections 23% below weekly average for 3 consecutive days. Total shortfall: KES 12.4M. No system downtime detected.

MCDA: NTSAAmount: KES 12.4M deficitDeviation: -23%Confidence: 82%Transactions: 890

Likely cause: Possible seasonal pattern or system performance degradation

ANM-004warningMonitoringAssigned: Bill Allela

M-Pesa settlement delay pattern

Recurring 2-4 hour settlement delays on M-Pesa channel for NTSA transactions between 12:00-16:00 daily.

MCDA: NTSAAmount: KES 34.2M pendingDeviation: +180minConfidence: 76%Transactions: 1,240

Likely cause: M-Pesa API rate limiting during peak hours — Safaricom infrastructure constraint

ANM-005warningOpen

KRA VAT collection variance — Nairobi

VAT collections from Nairobi region showing 15% variance from forecast model. Possible under-reporting from 3 large taxpayers.

MCDA: KRAAmount: KES 2.1B varianceDeviation: -15%Confidence: 78%Transactions: 45

Likely cause: Possible under-reporting or delayed filing by major taxpayers

ANM-006infoResolved

EPRA petroleum levy seasonal uptick

Petroleum levy collections trending 15% above forecast. Consistent with historical Q4 pattern and increased fuel demand.

MCDA: EPRAAmount: KES 480M above forecastDeviation: +15%Confidence: 91%Transactions: 2,100

Likely cause: Seasonal demand increase — confirmed normal Q4 pattern

ANM-007infoResolved

KEBS certification fee pattern change

Standards certification fees showing new bimodal distribution. Likely due to new fee structure effective June 1.

MCDA: KEBSAmount: KES 12M shiftDeviation: N/AConfidence: 88%Transactions: 560

Likely cause: New KEBS fee structure (Gazette Notice No. 4521) effective June 1, 2025

ANM-008criticalUnder ReviewAssigned: Peter Kamau

Potential revenue leakage — KAA parking fees

Airport parking fee collections 35% below expected based on passenger traffic data from JKIA. Possible collection gap.

MCDA: KAAAmount: KES 4.2M gapDeviation: -35%Confidence: 85%Transactions: 0

Likely cause: Possible bypass of automated parking payment system at Terminal 1